A debacle, indeed: revisiting the Iran embassy hostage rescue attempt
This piece from the Atlantic Monthly Online, "The Desert One Debacle," about the Carter administration's attempt to rescue the embassy hostages in Iran in 1980, is a sobering read.
I vaguely remember the incident--just one in a long line of frustrations connected with that sorry spectacle. But the details--which I'd never read before--are a case of "whatever could go wrong, did go wrong;" from vicious sandstorms, to the utterly improbable coincidence of the planes' initially encountering a truck and a civilian passenger bus as they landed in the desert, to a fatal airplane crash. Debacle, indeed; the planes never even came near Tehran.
Perhaps it's a good thing they didn't. From the evidence in the piece, the loss of life would likely have been even greater had they done so. It's very difficult to believe that this mission ever had any chance of succeeding. Not only was the weather problem in the desert underestimated, and the assault force relatively small (one hundred thirty two men maximum, with some planes expected to encounter technical difficulties and drop out), but here was the game plan for controlling crowds around the embassy:
Another presidential directive concerned the use of nonlethal riot-control agents. Given that the shah’s occasionally violent riot control during the revolution was now Exhibit A in Iran’s human-rights case against the former regime and America, Carter wanted to avoid killing Iranians, so he had insisted that if a hostile crowd formed during the raid, Delta should attempt to control it without shooting people. Burruss considered this ridiculous. He and his men were going to assault a guarded compound in the middle of a city of more than 5 million people, most of them presumed to be aggressively hostile. It was unbelievably risky; everyone on the mission knew there was a very good chance they would not get home alive. Wade Ishmoto, a Delta captain who worked with the unit’s intelligence division, had joked, “The only difference between this and the Alamo is that Davy Crockett didn’t have to fight his way in.”
At any rate, it didn't come to that. After flying through vicious sandstorms, landing in the desert, and encountering a Mercedes passenger bus filled with ordinary Iranians (who were promptly searched by the Americans and prepared to be flown out of Iran for the duration of the mission), the rescue attempt was aborted because too many aircraft had been rendered inoperative.
Then, as the evacuation of the planes was underway, one of the helicopters crashed into a transport plane on the ground, causing a conflagration and the death of eight members of the assault force. From the description of the scene, it's a wonder the death toll wasn't higher.
Reading about the hostage crisis brings back gut-wrenchingly bad memories: the endless negotiating, the arrogant posturing of the hostage-takers, the seeming impotence of our government. It's easy to recall that it was long; at the time, it seemed nearly endless, but the actual length was astounding: 444 days. The incident was one of the reasons Carter lost the Presidency (and rightly so), suffering the final ignominy of the hostages' release on Ronald Reagan's Inauguration Day.
In retrospect--and perhaps even at the time--the entire hostage crisis was a debacle, not just the rescue attempt. The consensus is that Carter's mishandling of the situation caused the US to be perceived as weak and vulnerable.
This recent Salon article contains a telling vignette on the subject, from the Iran of 2004:
So it was that I stood impatiently before the window to check out while the [hotel] receptionist took his sweet time to retrieve my American passport from the cubby behind him. He held it for a long, strange moment before he slid it my way. Wistfully, he said: "How I wish I had a passport like that." Off we were, talking about the election. The receptionist hoped President George W. Bush would defeat Sen. John Kerry. He hated the Democrats, he professed. It wasn't my first encounter with this Iranian enthusiasm for the Republican Party, as unfathomable as it was widespread. Under the Republican President Dwight Eisenhower, after all, the United States toppled Iran's popular nationalist prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, in 1953, consolidating power in the hands of the brutal and despised shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Under the Democratic President Bill Clinton, the United States finally apologized for engineering those events. I asked the receptionist to explain. "Jimmy Carter," he replied with disgust. "He could have stopped this Islamic Revolution, and he didn't." When it comes to Iran, where revolutionaries identified Carter with every bad turn the United States had ever visited on their or any other third-world country, and where Americans would come to associate him with haplessness and defeat, somehow everything the president from Plains, Ga., did would always be wrong. His presidency, already a fragile vessel, shattered on the shoals of the Iranian hostage crisis -- those 444 days at the end of his single term when the staff of the American embassy in Tehran was held captive by militant students. From then on, he would forever be linked in the American mind with the humiliation of seeing one's countrymen blindfolded, helpless, surrounded by angry mobs of Shiites -- believers in a religion most Americans only dimly apprehended, revolutionaries who hated the United States for having supported a regime most Americans were barely conscious existed. And now, 26 years later, this Iranian hotel worker in a single gesture renounced his country's revolution and laid it at the feet of the very president whose likeness Iranian revolutionaries burned in effigy as they massed outside the seized embassy compound.
34 Comments:
I vaguely remember the incident--just one in a long line of frustrations connected with that sorry spectacle. But the details--which I'd never read before--are a case of "whatever could go wrong, did go wrong;" from vicious sandstorms, to the utterly improbable coincidence of the planes' initially encountering a truck and a civilian passenger bus as they landed in the desert, to a fatal airplane crash. Debacle, indeed; the planes never even came near Tehran.
Allah smited the Americans, we shall jihad for Allah all day long and go to harem all rest of night.
It's easy to recall that it was long; at the time, it seemed nearly endless, but the actual length was astounding: 444 days.
Teenagers break and start crying under harsh police interrogation in the first 48 hours. I think you can basically crack anyone's will in 444 days. I tend to think most of the embassy hostages would have paid to get into Gitmo if they could have avoided being taken hostage by the Iranians.
Everybody wants what they don't have. When they get it, they'll start complaining about something else. Iranians are no less human than normal in this aspect.
Bowden has a new book out, publicized on Day Side on Fox, about the Iranian situation. He actually interviewed the hostages and hostage takers, about the beatings and how the hostage takers renounced their act. Leaving the hardcore hostage takers like Amanie, the true believers, in stark contrast.
Regardless of why the Iranian hotel worker said what he said, the principle remains the same. The 444 days showed that Iran had the backing of their God, and that it was a "sign" of the End Times. Even fanatics need encouragement, and they got it. They did the rest afterwards.
I remember that sinking feeling, the counting of the days on the evening news, the black-out feeling of the report of the rescue mission. In Tehran there were jubilant scenes as thousands of people celebrated the failure… A weak resolve gave life-give waters to the spawning Islamic Revolution, our preoccupation in the 80’s, a half-eye on the rising menace, the reality of 9/11 awakening a dream of false security to what was all to clear, the demise of our alliance with Europe held hostage to a immigrant population, only one more great appeasement and the circle will be completed; our withdrawal from Iraq. Such a frenzy would rock the world that Muhammad would all but manifest to lead the bloodlust.
Under the Democratic President Bill Clinton, the United States finally apologized for engineering those events.
Like a drunk the day after, Clinton is big on apologies. Maybe he should apoligize to the American people and the World for Carter.
After my previous comment I got to thinking: which presidents in the last hundred years didn't have some major personality defects? My knowledge of the early presidents is pretty hazy, but here is my first cut at the list.
1) Bush 43
2) Bush 41 (?)
3) Ford
4) Eisenhower
5) Truman
6) Coolidge
7) ?
Anyone have ideas for additions/deletions?
Carter micromanaged and hamstrung the rescue attempt at every turn. As I understand it, he had Pentagon planners build in so many go/no points that anybody looking at the plans and understanding the attitude behind them, had to know they would fail; such plans practically begged soldiers on the ground to declare the mission impossible and bug out. These instructions for non-violent confrontation with people surrounding the embassy are just another example of his stupidity.
Carter is a puffed up righteous toad of a man who continues to strut around on the world stage meddling and giving aid and comfort to our enemies. His Nobel Prize and hammer wielding skills have given him quite the image in the MSM. However, from the comments I have seen over the years, many people who have worked for him think he was one of the meanest, most spiteful people they ever encountered.
after all, the United States toppled Iran's popular nationalist prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, in 1953, consolidating power in the hands of the brutal and despised shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Mossadegh had communist ties and was installed after his predecessor was assassinated. The policy of the US was to support allies, especially against communists and Mossadegh was about to take over the government of an ally(the Shah) in a coup. The CIA, refreshingly loyal to Presidential administrations in those days, assisted the British and the Shah in a counter coup which resulted in Mossadegh’s trial, guilty verdict and imprisonment. He died years later of natural causes while under house arrest. A good bit of British wealth was rescued(Mossadegh had appropriated British-owned refineries in Iran) by helping the Shah remain in power and the counter coup ended any effective Communist ambitions in the Middle East. But Communism is like the herpes virus in that it can remain dormant for long periods and flare up again in times of extreme cultural anxiety.
What the quoted article doesn’t make clear is that the Shah was no more or less brutal than most Middle Eastern leaders and that the Shah was mainly “despised” by the same group of religious fanatics that presently rule Iran with an iron(and brutal) fist: the mullahs. Why? Not because he was “brutal,” brutality being a hallmark of those who despised him, but because the Shah was attempting to usher Iran into the twentieth century. His modern attitude and sensibility threatened sharia and might have led to the women getting uppity and possibly showing too much of their faces and ankles - threatened the power of religious fanatics to remain the arbitrators of all segments of existence. Mossadegh was their answer to the threat.
For his own reasons, Carter wanted the Shah to fall, and the Ayatollah to take the Shah's place. Carter was genuinely sympathetic to the ayatollah and what he was trying to achieve. He never got over the shock of betrayal, after he had helped the Ayatollah gain power. He never accepted it, always felt there had been some kind of misunderstanding.
Carter was always a closet revolutionary. His judgement has been warped by that self-identity.
Carter loved communism and the Left. It's ridiculous to believe he was trying to fight it, regardless of the strategy.
Here's another debacle.
Murtha and atrocities
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By 1978, 33% of university students were female with 2 million in the workforce. 190,000 were professionals with university degrees. …. The Islamic Republic was established in January, the Family Protection Law was abolished by a declaration from Imam Khomeini’s office in April and by March women were barred from becoming judges….read more
Note: This is just one source on the Internet. I suspect, from long-ago reading and viewings of other documentation, it is at least in part true that women in Iran were on the move, stepping out, until CRUSH ….Islamic Revolution and the rule of Sharia.
God only know what happened to these courageous women.
If only Europe and the American Left would help out on Human Liberation, people everywhere then might live in some semblance of peace and prosperity. What part of, “Democracy is better than Totalitarianism” do they not understand? The fact is, they do understand. [Actually some people are simply to immature]
Sadly, “Economics” trumps other people’s “chance” of a pursuit of life, liberty, and happiness”. For Western Europe it is trade on a big time scale; technology, arms, oil. For the American Left it is selling “I Hate Bush” T-shirts. Which just goes to show that a little justified “counter-crushing” by willing liberal democracies is the just resolve; they decide we resolve. Realpolitik.
Ymarsakar said...
Here's another debacle.
Murtha and atrocities
I saw, of course, “wild animal in the headlights” Nancy Pelosi chiming in on this, gah
The Left will pray -- they will pray for the invention of atrocities and/or the embarrassment of the administration. Either way this goes, war is hell, civilians get killed, the unfortunate [for the Left] yet critical distinction here is that if it did happen, we are debating it, there is no cover-up.
If it is true that unarmed civilians we shot down, and I hope to God it’s not – information has been out on this incident [last year?] almost instantly after the allegation and has till this day been under investigation.
I served [Peacetime/Cold War]. I have at least a remote inkling of an understanding of the stress our soldiers face.
There's a complex double blind about the overthrowing of the Shah.
There's two logical premises overlapping here.
1 America overthrew the Shah.
2 America installed the Shah.
It's really bad though, when a Leftist, Carter, was in charge of the US, and the US was believed to be supporting the Shah after overthrowing another pro-communist dude.
He was following Zbigniew Brzezinski's "Grand Strategy" of using Islamists to fight communism.
Some logical contradictions.
Leftists like Carter or the revolutionaries don't overthrow a Shah that was trying to reform Shariah in Iran, to fight "communism".
"Communist" "revolutionary" "fascist" are somewhat interchangeable because they use a lot of the same methods and have the same goals.
When the Islamic revolution started in Iran, the Carter administration saw it as the confirmation of its assumption that only Islamists could muster enough popular support to provide an alternative to both the existing regime and the pro-Soviet leftist movements.
So what we have in the end, is not CIA people interfering in things America shouldn't, what we have is a Leftist President supporting Leftist revolutionary goals against the Revolutionary Soviets... Why does this look like it's not real?
You might ask why I say the Iranian Revolution was a Leftist Revolution. I suggest you look back to Hitler and his NAZI party. Perhaps the better example is Mussolini in Italy. A lot of extreme totalitarian governments are produced from socialist, Leftist, and communist revolutions. Why? Ask orwell why totalitarians are fueled by the Left, he should know.
But anyways, the revolutionaries in Iran were promised a progressive paradise on earth against the brutal Shah. Guess what happened. The mullahs took power, and boom, it's all over but the dying and the torture.
of course, Khomenini was worried about Leftists, he had to purge them because they were no longer of use.
a lot of revolutions are hijacked by people other than the grass roots revolutionaries, you know.
If I was Bush and a vindictive person, I would parade the Iranian 444 days over and over again in front of the media, whenever Carter gets out of line and opens his mouth to talk about elections. I'd also use it as a propaganda ploy to increase hate against Iran, creating domestic support which matters, compared to international support which does not in terms of raw usable power.
Nearly 1,000 Americans were killed, including 241 Marines blown up while sleeping in Beirut in 1983.
Technically, you can't blow up more than about 100 people with a VBiED suicide pack. That would require an expansive wave type of explosive, the thermobaric systems used by Russia and the Marines. The Marines were crushed by the collapse of their barracks building. Like on 9/11. They were crushed to death, without air or hope.
Death to America takes on a different meaning there.
it is at least in part true that women in Iran were on the move, stepping out, until CRUSH ….Islamic Revolution and the rule of Sharia.
God only know what happened to these courageous women.
Nafisi's Reading Lolita in Tehran is an amazing book about an Iranian woman who welcomed the revolution when young and then found herself and other women crushed by it. She is a literature professor and she sets up an underground women's reading group. They read Western books in the light of their situation. As I recall, most of the group ended up coming to the West eventually.
A fine, thoughtful book.
And what made it easy for Carter was that he did not have to do anything, overtly, to overthrow the Shah. He merely had to stand by and do nothing to support the Shah, when a pittance of support would have cut Khomeini's military support off at the knees.
It was much like the democratic party congress and the fall of South Vietnam. The democratic legislators did not have to do anything, overtly, to cause the final triumph of the communists over the South. They only had to refuse any aid.
In hindsight, persons without facts assume such revolutions and conquests were inevitable. Other persons realize that the situation could have been altered dramatically in many ways.
Thanks Jack -- I'll see if our library has it.
On Carter/Shah Overthrow
Role of US Former Pres. Carter Emerging in Illegal Financial Demands on Shah of Iran
Our Endangered Patience
Jimmy Carter and the 40 Ayatollahs
Carter Sold out Iran 1977-1978
I can’t say if these are peer reviewed, because I don’t have time to check – but this might get you started. Look at the citations, if there are any. Also, research the authors.
Stunning links, Nyo, thanks for doing my research for me.
All I can say is, I never believe what I want to believe just because I want to. However, Carter's behavior and acts of betrayal against the duly constituted authority of the United States Constitution is rather consistent with Carter's venal and ruthless methods.
I always believed that the Democrats were rich corrupt robber barons at heart, their interest only in exploiting minorities and people weaker than they are. Bullies with lawyers and the US army in other words. Democrats do not lack ruthlessnes, because they are the US War Party.
If Nyo's first link portraying Carter is true, then that is consistent with my logical premises. Even if it is inaccurate, Carter's behavior and psychological profile would almost necessitate something similar.
If it isn't corruption with the Shah, then it is accepting the Nobel Peace Prize because they wanted to embarass Bush. All in all, personal benefit to Democrats like Carter, is not refused just because of their noble and kind spirit.
Thanks -- and yes these links are just starting places. If you really want to dig towards the truth, then evaluate the authors, their citations, etc...
I'd like to know why Mary believes Carter was fighting communism. I'm not talking about facts or cites or evidence. I'm refering to the reasoning behind Mary's belief that Carter, while a Leftist, would still fight the Soviet Union.
About the neutron thingie, the military industrial complex did exist. But what the Democrats did not tell you was that the military industrial complex was developed by and intended to benefit Leftists like Carter's administration. It makes sense, no?
You don't set up a military industrial complex that relies upon political favors to create favorable war for business, for the party NOT IN POWER. Which the Republicans were not in power, and the Democrats championed defense and what not. Reagan himself, if you recall, came from the Democrats. Republicans were isolationists, what military industrial complex could make a profit by buying Republicans up? Nobody. Which means what? It means the peope making the neutron bomb were basically selling a bloated contract to Carter and the American people.
As noted, the neutron bomb has no fall out. Therefore it has a chance to be used "more". Which meant, deterence would go down the toilet if there was no nuclear fallout. MAD doesn't work when there's no mutual to the assured destruction.
The Leftists were concerned about the new weapons. I am concerned about the destruction of humanity, and Carter was concerned about making a buck and getting the Soviets to back down by developing a new weapons system.
Think about it, Carter wanted the Soviets to back down by developing a NEW WEAPON system. The Soviets do not back down. One of the reasons why they crashed, was because they spent so much money on their military, that their economic infrastructure collapsed. The only question is, did Carter really think the Soviets would back down, like the idiot that he is, or was Carter openly trying to give the Soviets a reason to arm up?
But many left-wingers and liberals in Europe and America dubbed it the "capitalist" bomb and condemned it for making nuclear war more likely.
You have to ask yourself mary, if Carter was a Leftist, why did he support a neutron bomb? Assuming a neutron bomb existed that is, and worked as advertised.
This you can count on above all else. When the Left calls you a dictator supporting CIA agent, you can be assured that it is the Left that supports dictators. When the Left calls you a unilateralist, be assured that you are most definitely a multilateralist. When the Left calls GitMo a gulag, you can be assured that GitMo is a 5 star resort. When the Left calls a general credible, you can be assured that general is not credible. When the Left says John Kerry and John Murtha are war heroes, veterans of Vietnam, you can be assured that Kerry bought his medals and Murtha was working as a S-2(intel) in a staff position in the Marine Reserves.
When Carter says Bush supports dictators and is an oppressor for overthrowing regimes in native countries. You can be assured.
Here's a millblogger's plans to deal with Iran, based upon Sun Tzu and Clausewitz
My only comment is that a lot of these things can be tweaked based upon what else you want to do. For example, any naval blockade can be split between either after China vetoes or before China vetoes. Depending upon the time chosen, the results and leverage is different.
Maryatexitzero has thoughts:
- If we're fighting terrorism, why did we choose to attack Iraq, the nation that had the least amount of involvement in the 9/11 attacks? Why didn't we attack Iran then?
If your wanting to subdue some more dangerous despots after you’ve just deposed a dangerous regime in Afghanistan you’ve got to start somewhere and for 13 years Saddam had been violation his terms of surrender after his foiled invasion of Kuwait. Saddam was shooting at US aircraft, kicking UN inspectors out of Iraq, refusing to account for his WMD arsenal, had tried to assassinate an American ex-President, etcetera, etcetera, ad infinitum. He was a good start.
Why not Iran? Because, as we are finding out today, it is politically unfeasible to mount a military action against Iran. I wish it were not.
- If we're fighting terrorism, why are we allied with the worst terror supporting states? Saudi Arabia and the Sudan were about as culpable as the Taliban were in the 9/11 attacks.
I’m sorry, but no. I don’t believe the Sudan or Saudi Arabia were culpable for 9/11, except perhaps very, very indirectly. Before I swallow an assertion of this type I’m going to have to know just why Mary thinks Saudi Arabia and the Sudan were culpable.
- If we're fighting Islamism, why have we installed an Islamist government in Afghanistan? Why are we planning to install an Islamist government in Iraq?
The US hasn’t “installed” governments in Afghanistan or Iraq. Those countries are forming their own governments, having their own elections, etc. The fact that some aspects of the governments that these countries are forming are distasteful to Western democratic sensibilities only serves to underscore the relative independence of the political process in both countries. Other than specifying an elective process and forbidding some figures from former regimes from taking part I don’t think the US has been particularly dictatorial in the post-war government building.
- Islamist terror-supporting states are, for the most part, economically and strategically vulnerable, militarily weak and intellectually backwards. Why should a war against these weak states take decades? Why should a war against such pathetic enemies be called the 'long war'?
Mary descends into hyperbole with “decades.” The US deposed Saddam only 3 years ago.
There is no war against terrorism. We're cozying up to Islamists who want to kill us in the hopes that we can use them to intimidate the Chinese and the 'soviets'. We're willing to go to war to save Taiwan but we look the other way as Islamists destabilize governments around the world. Do we really believe that the Chinese are planning to attack us after they've invested billions in our economy?
I think Mary has it backwards. The US is cozying up to Russia and China in hopes they can intimidate the terrorists. China planning to attack? I certainly don’t think anyone in the administration or Congress thinks China is planning to attack the US. I do agree that the US has in the past looked the other way in regards to terrorists. In fact this passivity may have much to do with the current terrorism boom.
Both parties, Republicans and Democrats, are more threatened by challenges to their power than by terrorism. A powerful China threatens their status, and that frightens them more than 9/11 ever did. They're more interested in playing expensive realpolitik games than in fighting terrorism.
I don’t think either party feels much intimidated by China’s ability to threaten their status. I will agree that the Democratic Party is lackadaisical in respect to terrorism. Their main concern seems to be to somehow bring Bush down.
Doug said… Carter's foreign policy was ineffective, but he was plainly opposed to Soviet expansionism.
Hmmm (2 seconds later)
ineffectual and plainly opposed are pretty much synonymous in the business of foreign policy ESPECIALLY when you are dealing with a barbaric Islamist mindset.
I’m sorry, but no. I don’t believe the Sudan or Saudi Arabia were culpable for 9/11, except perhaps very, very indirectly. Before I swallow an assertion of this type I’m going to have to know just why Mary thinks Saudi Arabia and the Sudan were culpable.
There is that theory that Osama put so many Saudis because he wanted the US to attack Saudi Arabia, trash mecca and medina, inciting an Islamic backlash and increasing Osama support. Bush didn't seem to fall for it.
It doesn't really matter what I, or we, or Bush wanted to invade Iraq for. Those reasons are individual based and none of them are automatically going to be Mary's regardless of whether Mary hears them or not.
We could say, I guess, that Iraq was the low hanging fruit, the weak spot, of Arabia. With a guaranteed pro-American and militaristic faction called the Kurds in the north, and one of the few Arab nations that has a majority Shia population, which would give us allies against the Sunni and Sufi based Al Qaeda. This would set up a roadblock for both Saudi Arabia, Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, and Syria's Baathists.
The real question is, why Mary thought Iraq was not the better target.
His actions and his support of Brzezinski indicate that he was anti-Soviet, for his own reasons. Actions speak louder than words.
The only reason why you believe that is because of the Taheri article. You're just going to buy whatever Taheri says is the case?
- If we're fighting Islamism, why have we installed an Islamist government in Afghanistan? Why are we planning to install an Islamist government in Iraq?
People see Bush and they see a fundamentalist Christian theocracy. They have about as much justification believing that as you do believing that Karzai is an Islamist fundamentalist leader of a theocratic government.
Go ahead, list your justifications for why you're right, and Karzai is a fundamentalist Islamic leader.
- Islamist terror-supporting states are, for the most part, economically and strategically vulnerable, militarily weak and intellectually backwards. Why should a war against these weak states take decades?
Cleans wars are expensive, they also take longer. Asymmetrical warfare is also very long. The main reason why it should take decades is because very short wars and immediate victories don't really matter. The war is not going to end just cause you have a victory parade after Saddam is gone.
The shorter the war you want us to make, the more casualties we will take in the long term and the less success we will have crushing the guerrilas and terroists. You think the USA is omnipotent and can just wave a wand, and everyone's heads will fall off? Be realistic. We could do that, but that would be extermination, not war.
Do we really believe that the Chinese are planning to attack us after they've invested billions in our economy?
Actually, it is more like after America has invested billions in the Chinese economy. Since America is buying stuff from China, not the other way around, it isn't Chinese dollars being invested in our economy but American trade dollars being invested in Chinese manufacturing.
So, the politicians market their realpolitik games as a war against terrorism.
Your belief that the United States leadership in charge of military and strategic goals, is focusing on real politek as the strategic foundation is laid out in this manner. With some pro and anti justifications.
The United States refuses to support the status quo, instead favoring self-autonomy in Iraq and Afghanistan. You would have us believe the US focuses on realpolitek, inspite of the sacrifices in blood and treasure liberating the Iraqis and Afghanistanis, because of Amir Taheri and some anti-Soviet strategist.
That's not a favorable balance for belief. Realpolitek is Carter getting rid of the Shah cause he prefered someone else. People power, Carter has always favored. Real politek is not liberating two countries in the Middle East. It makes no sense for people who support dictators to want to get rid of them, and spend a huge amount of cash and lives to do it.
Let me outline it for doug.
Do you have any evidence that Carter wanted the Shah overthrown? If Iran had been invaded by the Soviet Union, Carter would clearly have used military force - he said so explicitly in the Carter Doctrine. But he wasn't willing to do so to suppress a popular revolution.
First of all, any evidence that Carter wanted the Shah overthrown is not believed. Ex Post Facto. One defense. Provide the evidence, and he shall disbelieve it. Fair, I suppose.
Second defense used by doug. Carter does things because Carter says he will do them. No, that can't be assumed. Politicians say a lot of things, like they will rescue the hostages or not negotiate with terroists. They fail to do them anyways.
First it was, Carter let the Shah get overthrown because the revolution was a Leftist popular one, and Carter wasn't willing to interfere. Then it was Zbigniew Brzezinski's strategy that made Carter support the overthrowing of the Shah in favor of Muj forces. Which one should we believe? I suggest neither.
On the one hand, we have the facts and cites and evidence about Carter's actions while president.
Ja, like the fact that Carter said he'd use military force in his Carter Doctrine therefore he obviouslly would have done it! Carter didn't use military force to repel Soviets, that's not a fact, a cite, or an evidence. Except the evidence that it didn't occur. That's not a fact, that's called circular logic to believe Carter used military force to support the Shah cause he said he would if the Soviets invaded. Look, he didn't, it didn't happen, and nobody's going to believe it would have happened based upon the "evidence" that he said he would have done it.
Brzezinski also became a leading critic of the Bush administration's "war on terror." Some painted him as a neoconservative because of his links to Paul Wolfowitz and his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, which frankly discussed U.S. empire. He wrote The Choice in 2004 which expanded upon The Grand Chessboard but sharply criticized the Bush administration's foreign policy.
In this case, presumably Mary is arguing that Bush is doing Brzezinsky's strategy and Brzezinsky is disagreeing with his own strategy... There's too many inconsistencies and senseless statements that don't jibe.
On the other hand, we have Ymar's syllogism that Carter was a leftist and no leftist would fight communism. Which should we believe provides the better description of the real world in which we live?
Obviously Doug believed my syllogism because Doug believed that Carter did not move against the Revolution against the Shah, cause it was a popular (read Leftist) one. I suppose asking people to disbelieve things that Doug already believes in, makes a lot of sense to some people, but I hope this kind of sloppy reasoning isn't indemic.
I really don't think it's wise to believe that Carter was anti-Soviet just cause one of his advisors came from Poland and was quite anti-Soviet. That's about as believable as saying we should believe that Carter would have used military force to support the Shah, cause that was what was in Carter Doctrine (and that sentence was written by Zbigniew Brzezinski too).
Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force. (full speech)
This, the key sentence of the Carter Doctrine, was written by Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter's National Security Adviser. Brzezinski modeled the wording of the Carter Doctrine on the Truman Doctrine, and insisted that the sentence be included in the speech "to make it very clear that the Soviets should stay away from the Persian Gulf."
It seems more and more, like whatever carter would do against the Soviets came directly from Brzezinski. Ain't that convenient.
Besides, Carter lied. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Carter didn't use military force against the Soviets. Carter sold some weapons, and that was about it, to the muj.
It's really sloppy argumentation and methodology on doug's part. The cites he is refering to is actually not quotes, but just anecdotes he recalls directly from memory. That would be valid if he is arguing from a common sense perspective, but that's not why Doug says he is right. Doug says he is right cause he has the evidence and the cites on his side. Recollections of dim memories of what happened 2 decades ago is neither evidence nor a cite, just to be clear.
you wouldn't accept that kind of "evidence" in an MSM piece, and you shouldn't accept it here just because you like the conclusions the article draws!
Let me outline the logic so that people don't get confused.
While I wouldn't believe a MSM story about Marine atrocities cause their anonymous sources said it happened, I would believe a reasoned and logical conclusion that is both consistent in the framework of reality and does not bear any logical flaws. What's the difference? The difference is believing something is true cause somebody's source said it was true, and believing something is true because the logic and reasoning is persuasive. Nyo's link has both a persuasive and logical argument. Your argument, Doug, is that because Jimmy Carter didn't use military force to support the Shah as a US ally, we should believe that based upon Jimmy Carter's actions that he was anti-Soviet.
No, that doesn't work.
See this is the problem with people who treat debates based upon whose source they believe in. That's just the logical fallacy of believing things based upon authority. They don't use logic, they don't scan their reasoning, and thus we end up with this junk in their argumentation.
Beyond its factual problems, the observant reader will note that it is entirely based on third-hand reporting by anonymous sources
Keep talking about the "source" and you might even qualify for argumentum ad nauseam as well as Argumentum ad verecundiam.
We already know that Doug doesn't believe in Nyo's sources. But then again, Nyo didn't say Nyo believes X cause of the sources. And neither did I, I said I am inclined to believe Nyo's first link's analysis because it makes sense. What part of it "makes sense" do people not get?. I call this the lawyer version of debating. Using evidence only and never basic reasoning.
Do we really believe that the Chinese are planning to attack us after they've invested billions in our economy?
If China attacked the U.S. the world economy would collapse, millions would starve, an unfathomable dark age would ensue, yet this might be the surprise attack we weren't counting on. In a way, the American Left is like the Muslim squatters of Europe, singular drops of innocent water, a flashflood waiting for an earthquake.
China's rising status as an economic superpower (with nukes!) directly threatens the status of our government, and they don't like it.
If the reason you believe that our government is beholden to China is because of economic reasons, then why isn't China beholden to the US given our superior army, navy, and air force?
In Cheney's own words, he was following the Cater doctrine.
Which would make Cheney different from Carter, in that Cheney actually follows Carter's doctrine.
In Cheney's own words, democracy and terrorism were not relevant in his decision.
Cheney doesn't have any words. Because Cheney isn't here, and he didn't say he supported what you said he supported. So it is not as if Cheney is the authoritative God people like me should bow down to cause you say he says what you think is right. Being supported by Cheney is not an indication of either Godhood or Correctness. Besides, Cheney doesn't decide American policy, that would be his boss, Bush. The one that actually got elected.
Conversely, can you prove that we are fighting Islamism or terrorism?
Can you prove Cheney doesn't take into account democracies or terrorism in his decision? I know, rhetorical question. Let's be clear here. Nobody's going to prove anything to you Mary, if you won't believe it. Convincing or persuading you that America's strategic goal is to spread democracy in the Middle East to replace dictatorships, is an entirely separate matter. I do know that it wasn't solely the forces of dictatorships that blew up US Marines with IEDs, you know. So, presumably, we are fighting Islamism and terrorism because Islamism and terrorism are fighting us. That's not even a logic chain, that's a double take.
How many Islamist regimes have we overthrown?
1
How many have we allowed to take over?
-1 Kuwaitt's voted in women's voting rights. A stronger argument can be made that we went into iraq twice to protect Kuwaitt... not Saudi Arabia.
If you're arguing that Carter did this or that, or the anti-Soviet Polish guy did this or that, and this means "we", meaning whomever you are talking about at any specific time, are not fighting Islamism and terrorism then you have a problem. It's called common sense. Obviously, if you mean "we" to include Carter as well as Bush and everyone else, "we" is not "we" but "everyone". Everyone, does not do the same thing all the time. Carter is not we. If Carter was we, then we would not be fighting Islamism because Carter loves Islamicfascism. We, meaning me and people who agree with me, are fighting Islamic fascism instead of supporting dictators, because presumably "we", are the ones fighting Islamic fascism instead of supporting dictators.
How many Chinese embassies have we bombed?
1
Is there like a point to your questions, or what?
If we really are fighting a war against terrorism, I can't imagine a less efficient way of doing it.
Conclusions. After some back and forth about why mary believes America is not fighting against terror, I still don't know much more than I started out with. It's obvious what Mary believes, about Saudi Arabia, Cheney, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, etc. But if you remember, I asked why Mary believed in those things. That's a different question, and I still don't know the answer to be honest. But that's okay.
Maybe I need to elaborate on what I'm seeking here. I'm not seeking to convince you, Mary, that the sun is black or that the lunar eclipse is blue, to use hyperbole. To the extent that I am curious, I am only curious as to what your justifications are for your own personal beliefs. This means what exactly? It means I'm asking for your logical premises, I am not asking for any corrolaries, evidence, facts, cites, events, or anything else.
Let's take Mary's reasoning about Saudi Arabia. The same applies to Kuwaitt, so why doesn't Mary believe it is Kuwaitt we are protecting, not Saudi Arabia?
Let's another one of your reasons, Mary. Dick Cheney. Dick Cheney didn't mention democracy... therefore Mary believes democracy did not factor in his decision makings. Problem is, why does Dick Cheney's decisions matter compared to Bush's?
Do you have time to do a few hours of reading?
Road block 1. Look, when people ask the question of why, it doesn't take long to answer once you get the answer. It does take awhile to figure out the answer. Which means, there are probably only 1 or 2 logical premises at the root of a person's beliefs. Everything else, concerns the how, the whats, and the when.
No, we allowed Islamist governments to take over. Just like Carter.
So I guess it goes something like this. We are using Carter's pro-Islamic strategy because we are just like Carter.
Are you talking about Karzai, the leader of the sharia-led Islamic Republic of Afghanistan?
I am talking about Karzai. Why? Because that was the name I used. I don't see a problem here, because when I say list your justifications about x and karzai being the leader of a fundementalist government, presumably I am asking about Karzai. Just to be clear, of course.
But he didn't do that.
Defunding Hamas is not drying up terroist funds. Invading terroist sponsoring nations like Iraq and Afghanistan, is not going after terroists where they live.
You want some complete Total War thing, which is not the same thing as saying Bush hasn't done these things. You want him to do more of these things, you want him to committ the United States to Total War through obliteration. Don't call that doing Bush's strategy for him. That's an entirely different strategy.
As I said, actions speak louder than words.
But you don't believe what you say. Since you're talking about Al Gore doing what you think he would have done, but since he wasn't President he didn't do what you think he would have done, now did he?
Actions of hypothetical characters aren't real actions. And Afghanistan and Iraq are real actions, regardless of the hypothetical character actions you said would have happened.
Mary wrote earlier: If we're fighting terrorism, why are we allied with the worst terror supporting states? Saudi Arabia and the Sudan were about as culpable as the Taliban were in the 9/11 attacks.
My response: I’m sorry, but no. I don’t believe the Sudan or Saudi Arabia were culpable for 9/11, except perhaps very, very indirectly. Before I swallow an assertion of this type I’m going to have to know just why Mary thinks Saudi Arabia and the Sudan were culpable.
Mary’s reply: Do you have time to do a few hours of reading?[links to articles]
Mary, I don’t dispute that individuals in Saudi Arabia are probably funding terrorism. And I certainly don’t trust the Saudis. The situation in Saudi Arabia with terror-funding is like the US had with IRA funding – not officially sanctioned but nothing much done to stop it, either(BTW, I concede the Brits have every right to be miffed at US hypocrisy on the IRA issue). And Sudan is definitely a terror-sponsoring state. But your assertion was that the Saudis and the Sudanese were culpable specifically for 9/11 and I see nothing in the linked articles to support it. BTW, if you believe Sudan and Saudi Arabia are the “worst terror supporting states’” you haven’t been paying attention. The country that sponsors the most terror is Iran.
On the “decades” assertion, I think it rather obvious from my response(“The US deposed Saddam only 3 years ago.”) that I was referring only to Iraq and thought you were referring only to the Iraq war. Yes, I agree with Rumsfeld that the larger world-wide religious war, above and beyond Iraq and Afghanistan, may take decades.
Why should a fight against Grenada-strength opponents take decades? It makes no sense at all.
In fairness, I don’t believe all the countries on the State Departments list of terror-sponsoring states are as militarily weak as Grenada was. Cuba, Iran, Sudan and North Korea may take awhile to win over diplomatically or subdue militarily. Three are off the list(Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan) but it has taken several years of military actions to get them off the list. Four more could easily take decades, don’t you think?
It's militarily unfeasible to mount a military action against Iran because we're tied up in Iraq, following the Carter doctrine.
No, actually the US could mount a devastating military action against Iran from afar using just one or two US nuclear submarines. After such a strike Iran would be reduced to the Stone Age. It’s political opposition here at home that prevents such an action, not any lack of military resources.
No, we allowed Islamist governments to take over. Just like Carter.
The US has recently deposed 2 belligerent governments. And how many governments did Carter’s administration depose? Just like Carter? Mary, you really do need to watch the exaggerations. Were you wanting the US to totally dictate the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq? Puppet governments? Oh how the anti-war crowd would scream if that were the case! Bush would be impeached by now!
I’m aware that there are monetary exchange and trade deficit points of contention between the US and China, but that is hardly reason to believe as you originally asserted that China is causing US politicians very much anxiety. This type of bloodless economic conflict happens too often with too many countries to cause anxiety.
Saudi Arabia and the Sudan are as culpable as the Taliban. So was the UAE. So was Iran.
If they are all culpable as you say, then there should have been no target preference. One country owuld have been as good as another. But that doesn't seem to be what you are arguing however.
If you read Robert Baer's Sleeping with the Devil or Robert Baer's Hatred's Kingdom you'll see that members of the Saudi government directly supported terror. Members of the Saudi government are currently encouraging Saudi suicide bombers to go into Iraq.
The question remains however, why Mary believes Iraq and Afghanistan were the WRONG first targets. We're not talking about if Saudi Arabia did or did not support terrorism, we're talking about why Saudi Arabia in Mary's view, is a superior first target than Iraq or Afghanistan.
According to some accounts, Carter's administration deposed the Shah.
Since the Shah was a US ally and progressive, and presumably Saddam was neither progressive nor an ally, there's really no comparison between what Bush did and what Carter did.
Our actions are similar to Carter's because our government is willing to tolerate oppressive Islamist governments in order to achieve their goals.
Carter did a bit more than "tolerate" oppressive regimes, he installed one in Iran.
We invaded Iraq, in part, in order to help our Wahhabi 'allies.'
Again, Mary's ignoring the fact that Kuwaitt was helped more by Iraq invasion than Saudi Arabia.
I wrote earlier: But your assertion was that the Saudis and the Sudanese were culpable specifically for 9/11 and I see nothing in the linked articles to support it. BTW, if you believe Sudan and Saudi Arabia are the “worst terror supporting states’” you haven’t been paying attention. The country that sponsors the most terror is Iran.
Mary’s reply: Saudi Arabia and the Sudan are as culpable as the Taliban. So was the UAE. So was Iran. If you read Robert Baer's Sleeping with the Devil or Robert Baer's Hatred's Kingdom you'll see that members of the Saudi government directly supported terror. Members of the Saudi government are currently encouraging Saudi suicide bombers to go into Iraq.
I repeat: Mary, I don’t dispute that individuals in Saudi Arabia are probably funding terrorism. In fact, there are probably individuals in government and elsewhere in society in every Muslim country in the world who are giving money and other aid to terrorists – individual Muslim business leaders, Muslim politicians, Muslim government officials and Muslim clerics all over the Muslim world are probably contributing, in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. In fact, Muslim “charities” in Europe and the US are probably also doing their part to contribute to the terrorists in the world wide religious war currently playing on the world stage. But your assertion was that the Saudis and the Sudanese were culpable specifically for 9/11 and I see nothing in the linked articles to support it.
I wrote earlier: Yes, I agree with Rumsfeld that the larger world-wide religious war, above and beyond Iraq and Afghanistan, may take decades.
Mary’s reply: The way we're fighting it, yes, it will. It can take forever to get somewhere if you stand in place, shooting yourself in the foot.
So your answer is to declare war on all Muslim states? Really? Or do I have your strategy wrong? Maybe you could give us a condensed version of what you think the US should do about terrorism because I think I may be interpreting your statements incorrectly in regards to a strategy against terrorism.
I wrote earlier: Cuba, Iran, Sudan and North Korea may take awhile to win over diplomatically or subdue militarily.
Mary’s reply: What do Cuba and North Korea have to do with the fight against Islamist terrorism? This is the problem with this 'war against terrorism'. Are we fighting the commies or the fascists? If we'd tried to fight both at the same time back in the early '40's, we would probably have lost both wars.
Terror-sponsoring states are the problem, not religion.
More from Mary: And why is Cuba still an enemy? They're a toothless regime.
Tell it to the political prisoners jailed and executed by Castro. Read the State Department’s blurb on Cuba, an excerpt from which I’ll quote: “The Government of Cuba maintains close relationships with other state sponsors of terrorism such as Iran and North Korea, and has provided safe haven to members of ETA, FARC, and the ELN.” Castro will do anything he can to screw the US.
I wrote earlier: The US has recently deposed 2 belligerent governments. And how many governments did Carter’s administration depose?
Mary’s reply: According to some accounts, Carter's administration deposed the Shah.
Only in the sense that Carter’s passive, apologetic foreign policy played into the mullahs’ hands. And the Shah was friendly toward the West, not belligerent, so your example does not pertain to my question – but we both know the real answer – Carter did nothing in retaliation and by doing nothing encouraged Iran to do more mischief.
Mary wades in: Our actions are similar to Carter's because our government is willing to tolerate oppressive Islamist governments in order to achieve their goals.
Mary, the problem is not Islamic regimes. The problem is Islamic regimes that attempt to wage war against the US and its allies by using terrorists as their proxy military. As far as I’m concern anyone has the right to adhere to any religion they want, as long as they don’t try to use the religion as an excuse to perform murder.
Mary asserts: We allied with the Wahhabis to depose the Soviets. We invaded Iraq, in part, in order to help our Wahhabi 'allies.' Since these alliances are currently bleeding our economy, this time the Islamists are helping the Reds defeat us.
In WW2, the US allied with the Soviets to defeat Hitler. Much later the US assisted the Afghans against the Soviets. In diplomatic terms it’s known as ‘shifting alliances.’ We invaded Iraq for a lot of reasons but none of them had anything to do with “Wahhabi allies.” You do understand, don’t you Mary, that if the US has an alliance with a country that that alliance is not necessarily forever? That a country may not be an ally in one era but may become an ally later?
I wrote earlier: I’m aware that there are monetary exchange and trade deficit points of contention between the US and China, but that is hardly reason to believe as you originally asserted that China is causing US politicians very much anxiety.
Mary’s reply: US politicians are more interested in maintaining their power and status than in protecting Americans. That's what their actions indicate. China's growing economy doesn't threaten me all that much, nor does it threaten most people, but it does threaten politicians.
I’ve seen a growing realization among US politicians that China is an economic opponent. Nothing new in economic opponents. There’s always an economic competitor on hand. Remember when the media had a feeding frenzy because Japan was going to ‘own’ America? But I really don’t think China’s economic shenanigans are causing a lot of anxiety in DC. Economic shenanigans are too commonplace to cause anxiety.
Mary asserts: They're still at war with Cuba, because Cuba is a commie state. Cuba doesn't threaten the lives of American citizens, but they don't respect the US government. Therefore, they're an enemy.
Cuba is a repressive state run by a dictator that used murder and pretended to want democracy to achieve his position. Cuba was the beginning of the Communist movement in Latin America and Castro has never given up trying to export Communism. As long as Castro is in power Cuba is a threat.
Mary asserts: Saudi Arabia directly threatens the lives of American citizens, but they pretend to respect the US government. They're our "good friends".
I repeat: I don’t trust the Saudis but then I’m sure Roosevelt didn’t trust Stalin, either; strategic alliances are not based on trust but on mutual interests and power.
Mary says: Politicians don't see things the way we do.
You can say that again.
Actually, Roosevelt did trust Stalin, giving him many post-war concessions during their conferences. It was Churchill that always warned about fascism and totalitarnian communism. But Churchill also knew how to bite off more than he could chew by forcing Germany and Russia to fight together.
Carter did trust the Ayatollahs, Komeini. Bush trusted Chirac and Blair. But Bush does not trust Saudi Arabia however, or Syria, or Iran, or even particularly Pakistan and Libya.
Mary says: The Government of the Sudan maintains close relationships with other state sponsors of terrorism and has provided safe haven to members of al Qaeda.
Sudan is a terror-sponsoring country – no dispute about that.
The Government of Saudi Arabia maintains close relationships with other state sponsors of terrorism and has provided safe haven to members of al Qaeda.
I don’t dispute that Saudi Arabia may maintain diplomatic relations with embassies, etc. with Iran and other terror-sponsoring nations. Such a relationship would be very useful for those ‘back-channel’ contacts with the US. But when I Google “Saudi Arabia al Qaeda” all I get is a lot of examples of the Saudis killing al Qaeda.
The Government of the U.A.E. maintains close relationships with other state sponsors of terrorism and has provided safe haven to members of al Qaeda.
Sorry, Mary, but I can’t just take your word. Your going to have to provide some credible links before I’ll buy into it.
ETA, FARC and the ELN have not murdered thousands of American citizens.
You mean that if terrorists murder other people and not Americans, that’s OK?
But, the UAE, the Sudan and Saudi pretend to cooperate with our government. That's why they're our close allies.
I don’t think the UAE and Saudi Arabia deserve to be placed in the same category as Sudan. I think that they do more than “pretend.” Although I’ll grant you that ultimately the Saudis and the UAE are not to be trusted too far.
I am interested in any links you may have about “the realpolitik mess.” I’m not sure just what you mean by “the realpolitik mess” but it sounds interesting.
We're not fighting a war against terrorism. We're fighting a war against anyone who won't do what we say, we're fighting the desiccated remains of the cold war because we're used to doing that, we're fighting a war against some bad guys but not the bad guys who pretend to do what we say because they're pretending to help us fight the other bad guys.
That’s your interpretation. My analysis: The US is fighting the chief “bad guys” and saving the little “bad guys” for later. One war at a time is enough, don’t you think?
Mary, at least you recognize that there is a terrorism problem and seem to be for action against terror-sponsoring states.
Civil arguments are such a surprise once you know the alternatives.
The pro-Israeli trash (neo-cons as a disguise/ruse) nce again attempt to create the lie that the Shah was a bulwark of civilization in Iran. The facts are that he was a despot; that Israel sold the resources to Iran that kept the American made F-4 Phantoms (and their Air Force) in the air: I.E. Tires, missles, avionics, etc, all items provided to Israel by Americans and that provided the Israelis with oil while putting at risk our rescue force and the hostages.
As a student of history I feel for the Iranians. We have historically been mislead in our MidEast policies by the pro-Israeli trash that is essentially disloyal anti-Ameriocan filth that strives only to meet the needs of Israel no matter how many Americans must die.
The real "final solution" is to shit-can Israel and seek to mend fences as Americans who strive as independents.
Time to take out the trash: Dump Israel.
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