Reaching critical mass in Iraq?
Both before and after we invaded Iraq, one of our problems was lack of good intelligence from inside that country. Many of our advisors were Iraqi expatriates whose information was out-of-date and not necessarily reliable, and Iraq itself seemed opaque and nearly impenetrable.
After the invasion the situation couldn't be turned around all that quickly. Iraqis were wary, and for very good reason. Why trust Americans to have Iraqis' best interests at heart or to be competent in building a new and better Iraq? Why believe that the awesome and terrible control of Saddam was no more? Why believe that al Qaeda and the foreign terrorists streaming into the country would not remain powerful forces?
But it seems that the long slow process of winning the trust of Iraqis has begun to pay off, and the more this happens, the more it will tend to happen. It's a snowball effect; small accretions build on each other, and finally some sort of critical mass is reached. It's as though the situation in Iraq immediately prior to Zarqawi's death resembled a supersaturated solution, and his demise-- and especially the resultant capture of a vast treasure trove of related intelligence on al Qaeda's working in Iraq--was the trigger that caused a host of cascading events to crystallize, which in turn appear to be profoundly weakening the terrorist network in Iraq.
The increased trust and cooperation that probably contributed to Zarqawi's end was no doubt due to a combination of factors, not the least of which was the nascent Iraqi government with its growing police force and army. And now (in the immortal words of none other than Bin Laden himself) since people tend to back a strong horse, with the killing of the hated Zarqawi and the arrest of many of his confederates, the US probably seems as though it just might be a stronger horse than previously thought.
Although there's always the possibility that the following represents some sort of psych-ops operation rather than the real deal, if we can believe the authenticity of a document reported to have been recently captured by our forces, the insurgency knows itself to be in trouble:
The document said the insurgency was being weakened by the American program to train Iraqi security forces, as well as "massive attacks and arrests," the disruption of insurgents' financial networks and the launching of a propaganda campaign that was prompting Iraqis to believe that the insurgents were acting against the public interest.
Effective anti-insurgency and anti-terrorist operations have been slow to build, but that is changing:
So far, the June 7th strike has led to over 500 more raids. There have been so many raids, that there are not enough U.S. troops to handle it, and over 30 percent of the raids have been carried by Iraqi troops or police, with no U.S. involvement. Nearly a thousand terrorist suspects have been killed or captured. The amount of information captured has overwhelmed intelligence organizations in Iraq, and more translators and analysts are assisting, via satellite link, from the United States and other locations.
Zarqawi's successor must be feeling at least a trifle edgy since his promotion, unless of course he aches for martyrdom. His identity and photo have already been posted with a speed that is still another indication of the recent improvement of our intelligence.
Does any of this mean that terrorist attacks such as this one will suddenly become a thing of the past in Iraq? Of course not, although it would be wonderful to see them begin to decrease.
And note the planned timetable for the increase in the use of Iraqi forces, mentioned in the same NY Times article that discusses Zarqawi's successor:
"There is an agreement to take over the security responsibilities from the British, Australian and Japanese forces in southern Iraq during this month," al-Zubaie said. "We hope that the Iraqi security forces will live up to their duties there. It is the dream of all Iraqis that our forces will handle security issues all over Iraq."
Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki announced shortly after taking office on May 20 that Iraqi security forces will start assuming full responsibility for some provinces and cities this month, beginning an 18 month process leading to the eventual withdrawal of all coalition forces.
None of this means things will inevitably continue to go in the right direction. But events do build on events, not only in terms of concrete information gained, but also in terms of changed perceptions. Greater strength on the part of the allies can only inspire more people to come forward with more information, which can only increase the number of terrorists and insurgents captured, which can only result in more intelligence information gained from their laptops and the like, which can only lead to more captures and more cooperation from Iraqi citizens. It's the opposite of a vicious cycle--that is, it's vicious only to those who are the hunted, al Qaeda and the insurgents.
posted by neo-neocon @ 5:45 PM
32 comments
32 Comments:
All things being equal, I see the very best mechanism for deciding when the bulk of coalition forces will begin coming coming home as being a national referendum in Iraq, with the question being put to the people.
I think, instead, the motion will originate from within the Iraqi government - after all, it is a freely elected body, representing the people -
(The people of Iraq. In the middle of the Muslim Arc. And their democratic government. We do live in wondrous times...)
- and such a request would still be the voice of the nation at one small remove.
The insurgency is on its last legs as far as being an organized threat. There will be more pointless murders, more bloody videos, and stringer-supplied photos of dead people.
The momentum is all going Iraq's way, though. Sad that the world's media can't see it, though not as sad as the same fault on daily display by our minority party and its BDS base.
All things being equal, I see the very best mechanism for deciding when the bulk of coalition forces will begin coming home as being a national referendum in Iraq, with the question being put to the people.
I think, instead, the motion will originate from within the Iraqi government - after all, it is a freely elected body, representing the people
With a copy of the same optimism in the nod of coalition generals and Heads of States, a referendum from the Iraqi people for coalition force to return home would be perfect – almost too perfect – I hope it can be achieved. There will be attempts on a scale not seen before to take hostage this resolve – one last “battle of the bulge”.
Iran has no intention of allowing Iraq to become even a regional success, if it can help it. I suspect that Iran's influence inside Iraq is much less than Iran would like.
Unfortunately, even if Iraq is regionally successful in democracy, that is not the same thing as freedom in the North American sense. Non-muslims will still suffer discrimination and intimidation. Merchants will still be intimidated and sometimes murdered by muslim fanatics. Honour killings of daughters and wives will likely continue. Sporadic revenge killings will take place.
Israel will remain the only nation with basic western freedoms in the middle east. Precisely because Israel is not arab, not muslim.
This is a Reverse Tet offensive.
What i found interesting was that Z man was trying to embroil Iran into a war with the US as a way to get the US off z man's back, and it was this Sunni using Shia, Shia using Sunni realpolitek going on here with the cloak and daggers.
Iran is using z man and sadr to get the US off Iran's back. Sadr and z man is using Iran to get the US off their back. Z man is using sadr to foment civil war. Sadr is using z man to consolidate political power. It is like a huge Byzantine Network of crazy stuff.
The withdrawl of US troops from Iraq will depend on the military's view of the need for our current bases in that country. Nothing else, in the final analysis, will count.
Propaganda, disinformation, and the media war does count.
Just look at what PC is doing to the Marine Corps.
Death before dishonor
Al-masri won't have near the network and freedom of movement zaqawri had and the hunt is on for him already. Assets have been taken out and compromised, safe havens no longer safe for him. How nice it would be to have his head on a pike in short order - it would be the coup de grace to al qaidah in Iraq. Sadr remains a problem and I would presume at a certain stage of attained security and normalacy, he can be removed by arrest or bullet. I would hope with stability that influential Shi'ites would be willing to act against him and his detrimental presence/influence. He should have been taken out early on. Long term Iraqi security and real democracy in my opinion is contingent upon Iran having its nuclear sites destroyed by the West. The mullahs have to be drop-kicked in the groin, to use street terminology - there is no way around that.
Regarding troop withdrawals, I keep in mind that the average solider in the Republican Guards was well trained and disciplined and I suspect many of them are being integrated back into uniform with clear avenues of loyalty and commitment set before them ,with better treatment and pay to boot. The fact that Iraqi forces are making raids and doing patrols and engaging terrorists is most encouraging. I think there has been remarkable progress in 3 years. In time, our media will have to report fist fights as a sure sign that chaos and anarchy reigns in Iraq..... 'today in Iraq, 6 men were hurt in a ferocious brawl at a bar. Coalition and iraqi forces seem powerless to stop these fights. Two children were cut by broken glass and residents are afraid to leave their homes' - well, I always did have a wild imagination but I don't think I'm too far off track with it....
Yamarsakr, there is a very strong backlash building against that PC nonsense manifesting by certain elements in the Marines. Some very pointed and hostile letters and emails are being sent, more than you would think.
al fin said...
Unfortunately, even if Iraq is regionally successful in democracy, that is not the same thing as freedom in the North American sense. Non-muslims will still suffer discrimination and intimidation. Merchants will still be intimidated and sometimes murdered by muslim fanatics. Honour killings of daughters and wives will likely continue. Sporadic revenge killings will take place.
So sad so true -- if we could just get N.O.W. to step up to the frontline of women's rights and show us the meaning of feminist courage.
Freedom in North American sense ain't as superior as one might think.
The more I learned about the military, the more I understood that it was neither the myth of evil Leftists see it as nor the pedestal of perfection that others treat them as.
The military, being composed of humans, is very prone to the same flaws of humanity as any other organization composed of humans. The difference is, that the military being what it is, differences and arguments are masked by the existence of the chain of command. In civilian organizations, there is transparency and media attention, so any disagreement is blown out of proportion. In the military, differences are cleaned out in house, and not aired for the whole world to see. Thus what seems like a very monolithic culture, is not a pristine and as pleasant as some might believe.
It is somewhat disappointing that the military cannot be the perfect pedestal that people look up towards, but in reality if you want perfect role models, then religion is your thing, not war.
What seems to be happening now is that some people are trying to control the military by making the military into a civilian organization, where matters are decided not based upon loyalty, honor, or ethics but based upon popularity, politics, and political favors.
It used to be that internecine battle amongst the different branches caused big mojo problems at the top, now that we have integrated the Joint Commands for all branches, the new problem is now politicians and the media and the lawyers. It is always the lawyers, it seems, who are messing things up.
The military faces a "crisis" like this every few decades or so it seems. In the 1960s, it was desertion and drugs. In the 70s, it was Vietnam and inter-service rivalries. In the Clinton years, it was funds being cut. In the Bush years, it is now PC with a vengeance.
If the warriors face the domestic enemies of the Constitution with the same nerve and verve they show towards the foreign enemies of the Constitution, then they will be just as victorious. Bush might want to authorize the military to do that however. It is not just the borders that are domestic.
Here's a taste of what a Bush counter-propaganda operation would look like.
What you see is not what you get
al fin--
I agree with you completely. But things aren't always about where we stand, but what direction we are heading in. Our democracy initially didn't allow women to vote at all, and allowed people to own other human beings as property, and we're not doing too bad today. With a democratic setup, people have a frameworkw for positive change (and conservatives can peacefully resist it) without blowing each other up.
Neo,
No less an authority than Michael Ledeen thinks the Zarqawi document you (and many others, including Ralph Peters) cite is an Iranian forgery:
Nonsense...
Jamie Irons
The intercepted letter from z man to al man zawahiri in Pakistan, was not a forgery. Nothing new so far has contradicted the basic Z man plan he outlined in his letter of obedience to Al Qaeda's 2nd in command.
JJA: Not really. May was one of the worst months since the fall of Saddam. Recently there’s been a dramatic increase in assaults and the number of dead innocents. Precisely the opposite of what the unnamed “leader” says.
Dude, when someone says he hit you with a nuke, that don't mean he said he caused less casualties than shooting 5,000 bullets at you. Retarded analysis. If Ledeen wants to twist words around, he should at least get rid of the facade.
“So how exactly do you figure out when something is real, and when it’s a deception?”
I was talking via my rickety ouija board with the spirit of James Jesus Angleton, the former chief of CIA counterintelligence, somewhere in the Great Beyond, concerning the much ballyhooed document found in Iraq [...] Angleton seemed much amused by the document, which he dismissed as a manifest phony.
ouija board, cia, what is this, a charades party? He tells what is real and unreal by making up stories about talking to spirits or is he rather serious? Rather counter-intuitive to determine reality in unreality.
JJA: You said it! As if organizing the killing of Americans in both countries were “big support.” And that’s only the beginning. He goes on to say that the terrorists should be “disseminating threatening messages against American interests and the American people and attribute them to a Shia Iranian side.”
To Z man, who is a fanatic about the Shia segment, Iran supporting the Shia is the same in his mind as Iran not fighting the US. Therefore Z man would prefer that Iran fight the US and prod the Shia into open warfare against the SUnnis, which Z Man controls.
JJA: ...terribly done...shockingly amateurish...unbelievable...
Which is exactly what I think, in case you’re wondering. I think the Iranians put out this sort of nonsense so that we’ll have trouble figuring out what’s real. And by the way, it wasn’t found in Zarqawi’s house, contrary to the triumphant announcement from the office of the Iraqi prime minister. So it’s certainly not a Last Testament. It’s just nonsense.
The belief that Iranian disinformation campaign is as ineffective, as ridiculous, and as weak as the document Ledeen accused of being Iranian disinformation, is a rather naive and ignorant underestimation of Iran's propaganda apparatus.
It seems Ledeen believes it is disinformation because of some spirit he is channeling in addition to the fact that he believes it is a sloppy piece of work.
That is not enough justifications to believe it is disinformation and it is not enough justification to believe what that disinformation was intended for.
Jamie,
Due respect to Mr. Leeden, but the Iraqi National Security Advisor is definitely acting as though he considers the intelligence for real. Quote from a story:
"When asked how he could be sure the information was authentic, al-Rubaie said "there is nothing more authentic than finding a thumbdrive in his pocket.""
I'm not really sure where Mr. Leeden gets the info that the "document" was not found in Zarqawi's house, but I am willing to reevaluate it's authenticity if more information is provided. Anyone here know what Leeden is talking abouut when he says it wasn't found in Zarqawi's house?
I'm going to do Confud a favor, perhaps the last favor as well as the first. Here's the link to Palestinian Princess.
Link
This is where you belong, Confud, this is where you will find happiness and purpose.
Just so that it is clear, what Y promotes in his link earlier (Here's a taste of what a Bush counter-propaganda operation would look like.) is that Bush should "use disinformation" (code translation = "lie") in order to further the objectives and propaganda war.
Shows exactly how Y thinks. Shows just how well indoctrinated Y is that he does not realise that Bushie has been doing just that for the past six years.
As for reaching "critical mass", I wonder if the true implication of that has passed through Neo's mind.
The term originates from the mass at which nuclear fission reactions can not be controlled. Now as I see it the only thing that happens after that is an explosion that creates devestation for quite a large distance around.
I do not think, Neo, that that is the kind of picture that you would want to see happening out of Iraq. Regrettably the news this morning seems to indicate that it might well be past the point of "critical mass" and out of the control of the government... (take your pick there whether that means Iraq or US).
The only way out of a controlled cycle of violence is to increase the violence on one side of the equation to an uncontrollable level, such that there is nothing left but the victor. Peace then comes about. The chemical process must react until the reagents are used up, the catalyst is used up, the controlling reagent is gone. Trying to keep the reaction from going critical, is just keeping the death and war going on like in Israel and Palestine. Without the reaction going critical and spiralling out of control, then all we have is controlled, perpetual, violence. Not a good thing for the weak nor the downtrodden. Because it is the tyrants that are good at controlling violence, not the people.
The prejudice against Bush prevents people from seeing or even considering that Bush is not doing propaganda in this war on the level that Truman and Roosevelt did in previous wars. Milbloggers, the military, and the new media blogosphere have said time and again that Bush is an absolute failure on the propaganda front.
Shows exactly how Y thinks. Shows just how well indoctrinated Y is that he does not realise that Bushie has been doing just that for the past six years.
Where one is prejudiced on one account, the blindness tends to spread towards other areas of healthy tissue. I am not indoctrinated to see Bush as the end all and be all of America and the American Constitution, after all Bush means what he says and says what he means.
People who could otherwise argue reasonable and use logic, are reduced to this semi-literate state of abject misery and ethical blindness. Simply because the prejudice of the human condition unmans them.
Republicans and conservatives get accused of standing with the party line like little Nazi soldiers that are just taking orders, when conservatives defend Bush and his policies. When people like me and PunditReview radio and others criticize the President for refusing to do his duty to defend the Constitution against domestic enemies, and refusing to use every arsenal and means in his armory to fight terrorism, then the prejudicial corps start saying that we are "indoctrinated" into not seeing what Bush didn't want us to see.
In the end, their prejudices are clear. No one that disagrees with them fundamentally does so based upon an individual and honest position, it all has to do with the marching orders from Bush himself. If Bush tells conservatives to defend him, that is what the conservatives do. If Bush tells the conservatives that he hasn't been using propaganda, that is what the conservatives believe, in a rote like manner. This is the prejudice seen very clearly in the age of the new millenium, that was so unclear and formless in the 20th century. The unity of war had clouded some of the basic misperceptions of the common cause. Now it is different.
First I'd have to read it.
You know Ymar, he is like an open book. An open book that is inflames that is. Best not to rock the boat here. Btw, this is Sakar speaking, for your information. So it is S, not Y. Not at the moment anyway.
Well, Tequila, all I know is that you don't know what logic is, or if you do, you don't know how to differentiate between bad logic and good logic. You tell me what this makes you. Better hurry, Ymar might take back control and then something bad will happen. Although that is better than Ymir. Anything is better than Ymir.
(Has my sarcasm made me a troll yet?)
No, but you really ought to give some thought to making individual, longer posts, rather than making three short posts consecutively (and five posts of yours within a span of six total posts). That's annoying.
Well, Justin, it is better than when Tequila did 25 very long posts in consecutive action by copying and pasting news articles.
Ywhatsit, your devastating critique of my position has left me in total confusion.
I try to avoid critiquing people's positions. A lot of people's positions aren't real, and are far less important than their core beliefs.
Is it me or does Confud act like a Master demagogue at stoking up hate and prejudice?
Confud or Conned provided a link, early on, to a former Neo neo con post, and when I was looking at the comments, Tequila's name came up so many times in secession at the end, that it was pretty easy to recognize the name.
Now Neo may tell us if I got the name right, because I sure didn't dream up a link provided by someone else and written by neo, our host, here.
I'll go with tequila being the name 25 times in secession, or more I really didn't count it just was long enough to overlap one full page, and you can go with some other name that you'd prefer.
Again, to use something called logic, lying is when someone purposefully says something they know isn't true and isn't something that they personally believe. Because I personally believe the name of the poster that did the 25 something comments in a row in a very old comment was Tequilamockingbird, then logically I cannot be lying about something that I believe to be true.
Perhaps you find my writing hard to understand because you pay no attention to analyzing the logic, understanding my reasoning, or do anything else that is of constructive rather than destructive in origin.
Why should I care if tequila believes that it is his duty to attack strangers on a website that he reads?
I'm counting the odds, who wants to bet on me being right or Tequila being right?
Come on, speak up. This is like poker, who is bluffing, and how much are you willing to committ?
Although I can't find the link, I'm pretty sure I archived it on my blog, so it'll just take a moment to search it. No need for neo to spoil the fun, after all.
Oh ya, one of the above things here I said was a lie, just to do the liar's paradox.
There's another option, where you can go for no one being right, if I was wrong on the number of consecutive comments done by Tequila.
So you got 3 things to pick, and I'll give most people here enough time to decide before I go searching in my blog archives.
Either pick that I am right that Tequila posted 25 times in secession without a break in between by any other person, or pick that Tequila is right that I am lying and making stuff up to slander Tequila.
Or pick the third option as I described.
Enjoy the game.
Well tequila gets points for self-honesty, but he gets a big thumbs down for ruining the "game" (spoken with a Japanese accent).
Not trying to annoy Justin, but here's the link, just click on the title for it.
Link
It is not in my archives, so that was the lie I said. Unlike other people, I can actually recognize a liar from someone telling a truth that they believe in, and if I lie, I will either tell you upfront that I am doing so or I will tell you after the fact. In this case, I'm doing both.
Like I said before, Justin, the 3 or 5 you see is much MUCH better than the 47 consecutive posts Tequila did in the past.
Now, see, that little detour did no one any good. Since Ymir and Ymar's locked up good and tight, there's no danger of me gloating over this little tet a tet or whatever the French called it. I told Justin something, people said it was wrong, and so I provided the evidence, and it was retracted. That's a debate, an argument, and a well that's just it.
People can draw their own conclusions. It's too bad too, because Ymir is now yelling at me that he didn't get to see Confud and Conned get conned, awrgg.
If anyone's still reading this thread...
Neo, you said "which in turn appear to be profoundly weakening the terrorist network in Iraq."
I think that's a little ahead of the curve. At this point, I think it's best to say that it's well within the realm of possibility that we're getting intel and taking actions that "appear to be profoundly weakening the terrorist network in Iraq."
I know you had the qualifier "It's as though" much earlier in the sentence, but it seemed to no longer apply later in the sentence. Just being nitpicky.
"All the top-notch Arabists were pulled off the legitimate Afghanistan action and diverted to the folly in Iraq."
God, I hope so, since Afghani's aren't Arabs.
I think that statement speaks for itself.
Btw, just a note, but moral equivalency only works if you assume that the terroists are just animals and the West are the real enlightened folks. Otherwise, people wouldn't blame the West for using violence while saying "oh, the terroists, they just got a bad deal, that is why they use violence against the West".
The standards are not equal, the blame is all on the West, so the equivalency is a bit skewed. In this case, people believe the West's violent actions and wars are worst than the Arab terroist's, simply because they expect "better" of the West. We have to be "morally superior", because we are "enlightened" and above the "Arab masses". Or some such rot.
Gotta have clean hands you know, can't get down and dirty with sleep deprivation or "torture" like the terroists use, we are better than the terroists. That is their primarily reasoning for any moral equivalency, in order to compare our actions and theirs in an equivalent manner, they have to handicap the Arabs and give the West moral and ethical standard props.
History just repeating, now though there is a chance, a chance for Humans to finally break free from the mold of enslaved minds. To many the puzzle presented is all there is, to others the puzzle is not seen at all, hidden away in the flasky shadows. Whether or not seeing reality is desired, it will some time soon be presented in truth for all to see.
US Revolution - British Loyalists.
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